Random thoughts on electric (and other) cars.

Autonomous cars, electric cars, and Apple (not necessarily in any logical order)

Mankind, have started dreaming of self-driving cars, maybe even before the invention of the car itself, maybe because back then, people who could afford a private vehicle (where you have horses at the front, driver in the middle, and the VIP cabin in the back); they never thought of driving as an aristocratic activity.

The early ideas were something very technologically-advanced back then (very primitive now), like implementing some sort of metal conductors that will follow signals from wires along the road, so the car will drive in that lane like a robot (see General Motors concept car here).

But I believe the greatest achievement in this field (think of a comparison between Wright brothers’ first flight, and man landing on the moon), was the project done in the 1980s on a Mercedes-Benz van by Ernst Dickmanns (see the image below), the car had a clever system implementing cameras and computers to analyze the “vision thing”, and react accordingly, remember, it was the 80s and the experiment was successful that the EUREKA organization invested €749 million (in today’s money) to work on this project between 1986 and 1995. (See more details here).

I also have to mention some remarkable recent achievements like the Google system (the most successful so far), the TerraMax autonomous military truck from Oshkosh Defense, and the auto-pilot systems in both BMW 7-Series and Tesla Model S.
But you don't need to go very far. If you are poor and can't control your need for an autonomous car; jump into a taxi! it's the same principle but much safer.

(A Mercedes-Benz van, modified by Ernst Dickmanns, fitted with cameras, computers, and actuator to drive for very long distances with minor or no human interference –experimental progject)

What about electricity?

 

 

(The pictures are from an electric car –I don’t remember details, but it was maybe a 1906 Ford- I took the pictures using a poor people cell-phone-camera in National Automobile Museum, 10 Lake St, Reno, NV 89501 –somewhere in November 2014)

I think –in my humble opinion- that the general opinion from the public towards Apple entering the auto industry, might be clouded by the idea of Apple capable of doing almost anything, and like Area-51 in Sci-fi, it hides the deepest secrets of beyond-imagination technologies, while the fact is, even Apple can’t break the laws of physics, and if they will ever make an electric car, it won’t be a futuristic revolution, it might even be less than what we already have here in the market right now, simply because the major players spent years and billions in research to arrive to what we are currently buying, and they still hold their patents, so I don’t expect Apple to re-invent the wheel and make unbelievable technology achievement.

People want the car to be an overwhelming machine… flying, washing itself, charging in a few minutes …etc, but most likely it will focus on electronic gadgets and entertainment systems inside the car, plus connectivity and online services that need to be purchased, while the electric motors and power systems will be very close to competitors –actually it will be outsourced,  or even worse, they will buy a car already been made by some anonymous sub-contractor in China, and stick the expensive iBadge on it, to justify the price tag.

Most people don’t mind having the car for free, some people want to buy the car at a high price because they want to tell everyone that they are paying –more than what they have to pay- to do the world a favor, maintain the environment and save the polar bears …etc

Reasonable expectations for an “iCar”; were around 40,000 for the basic model and in my opinion, multiply that by three, at least!

Concerns from the public can be that the car will be less than they expect it, and that it didn’t worth the wait, and some will be concerned about Apple might be rushing to get the product in time so it will have defects and recalls (recalls in cars are never a good thing), some people think it will freeze while driving and require a restart.

People like me fear that the company will purchase a current production car, make some cosmetic changes for the inside and outside, fit it with some big touch screens and huge amount of application that encourage everyone to pay for services they don’t actually need, and after all put their badge on and a price tag that is 5 times the price of the original car, because they won’t invest on developing a whole car from scratch.

Myself I would focus on very specific points, dive into details, and talk about the really innovative ideas, because everyone is talking about electric cars which is an extremely simple principle, that didn’t change for over a 100 years. Apple –presumably- is different than everyone and will do something unbelievable.

Conclusion –Tesla cars didn’t achieve a major techno-miracle, I admit it’s a very successful marketing and business strategy, but the technology isn’t significantly different from the pictures above for that 100 years old green Ford, Tesla didn’t make a major change in the batteries either, because it’s the same kind of rare earth materials, being produced by China for several years (for computers, cameras, cell phones…etc.). With some cash, weekends and available space in your back yard, you can make a very good car for less than the price Tesla asks for. But as long as lots of people have lots of cash to spare, Tesla will go for more buzzing wheels, and maybe Apple will do the same thing –in more attractive design of course.